Sure, enterprise is likely to make the switch first, but it’s also likely to kick start the price reduction to consumers. So I actually don’t think it’s that far away. I would guess we are like 5 years away from SSDs being the significant majority of consumer storage technology by volume.
Even now, as a self hoster it’s pretty reasonable to have SSDs if you are talking about single digit TB. Sure SSDs are about 2x the price, but we are talking about a difference of like 60 USD if you only need 2 TB.
Based on current trends, I’d say we might get SSDs and HDDs at the same cost per GB around 2030. That’s based on prices being 12-13x higher in 2015, and around 5x higher now. SSD cost efficiencies are slowing down, but there will also be a big change in demand once the prices get close, because SSDs have other advantages people will switch as soon as it’s economical.
Define “quite a while”
Sure, enterprise is likely to make the switch first, but it’s also likely to kick start the price reduction to consumers. So I actually don’t think it’s that far away. I would guess we are like 5 years away from SSDs being the significant majority of consumer storage technology by volume.
Even now, as a self hoster it’s pretty reasonable to have SSDs if you are talking about single digit TB. Sure SSDs are about 2x the price, but we are talking about a difference of like 60 USD if you only need 2 TB.
Based on current trends, I’d say we might get SSDs and HDDs at the same cost per GB around 2030. That’s based on prices being 12-13x higher in 2015, and around 5x higher now. SSD cost efficiencies are slowing down, but there will also be a big change in demand once the prices get close, because SSDs have other advantages people will switch as soon as it’s economical.
Yeah, for anything over 10TB for an individual consumer it will take time.